What models can and cannot do


Last week, 5.5 inches of snow fell on our back deck.  This was unexpected.  The computer models at accuweather had predicted a dusting of snow, or maybe 1-3 inches.  I told my students to expect a regular school day, I did not even think there would be a delay.  But as I worked into the night and looked out the window every so often, I saw a lovely picture developing.  The trees were getting that “frosted” look, the street unplowed.  I got out my “wet weather shoes” for Wednesday morning, and went to bed.


Happily, we had no school on Wednesday (I had a good nap, got some work done, shoveled in good time, wrote that “25 things” post).  Apparently a “freak band of snow” had settled across Southeastern PA overnight and we were in it.  Surprise!

Today, I put on my “wet wether shoes” to go to church this morning.  On this gorgeous, sunny warm day, the sidewalks and street gutters were running with water from the meltoff.  It had started yesterday, and finished today.  All gone.  no more snow.  And it should stay warm this week.  According to the models.

I could have sworn I smelled spring on the air as I walked from the train station to my church.

But the weather models are also predicting a temperature dive next weekend and possibly a stormy week following.  Great.  I am leaving for Chicago for the AAPT winter meeting/AAAS meeting on Friday, and I am counting on the planes being on schedule.  I’m returning Monday evening (President’s Day) and I plan on going to work Tuesday morning.  But aside from anticipating freezing my butt off in Chicago as I hustle between the two convention hotels (what happened to winter meetings in Orlando?  or New Orleans?  or San Diego?), I also know that weather models are notoriously changeable this far out (Punxatawney Phil aside) and there is no point in worrying about the weekend until I have to pack on Thursday night.

On the other hand, if we get some more of this, I won’t mind.  I like snow.


(Hey, this is my 100th blog post!  Yay!)

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